From the nation’s capital in Yaoundé, the political situation appear to be going well for the Biya Francophone regime that has deployed approximately 35,000 army soldiers in Southern Cameroons and has destroyed more than 72 Southern Cameroons towns and villages.

But the view deep inside the Federal Republic of Ambazonia tells a different story as some officials and Southern Cameroons opinion leaders recently told Senator Peter Mafany Musonge who is moonlighting as Chairman of the so-called Bilingualism and Multiculturalism Committee. The complete absence of a genuine political process to accompany the military onslaught going on in Southern Cameroons is instead driving all Ambazonian communities including Anglophone CPDM militants to consider allying with the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia.

Hon. Jua Pualinus has repeatedly sounded a note of caution that the arrogance being demonstrated by the Biya Francophone Beti Ewondo political elites who dominate Cameroon’s power base remains a grave mistake that could mean the end of the one and indivisible Cameroon.

To be sure, the military deployment and killings will end up achieving nothing. Consequently, the whole strategy put in place to counter the Southern Cameroons-Ambazonia uprising needs to be revisited and readdressed and the European Union and the United States should be part of the process.

The Biya French Cameroun military campaign currently going on makes it extremely difficult for both Cameroons to engage in any form of reconciliation after the war. Most of the key Southern Cameroons towns and cities such as Kumba, Bamenda, Mamfe, Mundemba, Tiko, Muyuka, Ndop, Nguti and Limbe are now increasingly unstable and vulnerable even to french speaking Cameroonians living in Southern Cameroons.

The killings in Dadi, Menka-Pinyin, Bekora in Ekondo Titi, Nguti, Belo, Mbalangi, Menji and Lewoh demonstrates the lack of strategy and reconciliation on the part of the 85 year old President Biya and his acolytes.  There are widespread killings in every Southern Cameroon County; militias are emerging day-by-day roaming the Southern Cameroons territory. More than 200,000 Southern Cameroonians have been expelled from their ancestral home and they can’t go back because of the atrocities of the Cameroon government forces.

Minister Paul Atanga Nji has made the security situation in Southern Cameroons even worse by creating armed militia groups in the Northern Zone that are presently encouraging a lot of sectarian violence and every Ambazonia tribe have started to reflect on the idea of rallying behind the Interim Government. Cameroon government security forces relative control in places such as Mamfe, Kumba, Ekok, Wum, Batibo, Widikum, Muyuka, Bali is fast melting away as restoration forces are now targeting traitors within the struggle. Traditional leaders themselves are echoing these fears.

Southern Cameroonians and their Interim Government don’t have faith in the crime syndicate in Yaoundé. The reason is simple: The Biya regime didn’t make a mistake once or twice. They keep repeating the same mistake over and over and the government after 57 years is yet to deliver any of its promises to Southern Cameroonians till now.

The political situation too in French Cameroun is fragile. A majority of Francophones are simply waiting for a liberator to get rid of Biya and his gangsters.  The demands of the Francophone army are no longer sustainable. Biya and his Francophone regime have used all its French tactics and have started adapting the Anglo-Saxon strategy to reduce the damage. Frankly speaking, French Cameroun is losing.

All attempts at trying to prevent Southern Cameroons from a further slide away from Cameroon government control have failed.  The revolution has indeed restore Ambazonian control over Southern Cameroons mindful of the fact that the toll in blood and treasure has been high.

People in the know and some insiders say the Ambazonian Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces have retained strategic control over Manyu, Lebialem, Ndian, Meme, Mezam, Menchum, Kupe Muanenguba and Boyo. Cameroon Intelligence Report sources in these areas say many of the weapons seized from Cameroon government forces ever since the war started are stored in the forest.

Across the border in Nigeria’s Cross River State, the Buhari administration is already feeling the pain of its poor reading of the crisis in Southern Cameroons.  Ekok, however, remains contested between the Manyu Warriors and Cameroon government army soldiers.

The horror which will come up after Biya finally falls from power in the October presidential elections will justify Washington Post claim that Africa’s next civil war may be Cameroon.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai