Many political observers now think this will happen. But we of the Cameroon Concord News Group are praying that it doesn’t…

But if it does happen, it will be way different from what happened in the pre and post colonial era involving the Bassas and the Bamilekes.

How the UPC struggle unfolded: Even though the French and the Ahidjo governments reportedly sold it out to the world as a “no victor no vanquish” it’s an open secret that La Republique du Cameroun won by exterminating thousands of Bassas and Bamilekes.

La Republique du Cameroun won basically because of international support from France and other French speaking countries in the present day CEMAC region. The UPC freedom fighters such as Reuben Um Nyobe, Dr Felix Roland Moumie and Ernest Ouandie on the other hand, did a lot of things that were considered magical. The truth is that they could have done more. The Bamilekes and the Bassas have not forgotten that thousands of their relatives died.

Cameroon has not changed at all, the country is still not able to produce anything even tooth pick or condensed milt let alone refine crude oil. So in this edition of the AGBAW-EBAI DEBATE, we attempt an explanation of what will play a crucial role is the dynamics of International politics as regards the current crisis situation in Cameroon under Biya?

China was not this powerful in the 50s and 60s, they will likely support a change of leadership in Yaoundé. The UK loves a united and democratic Cameroon. US under Trump presidency is all about what benefits the US economically and enriches the elite and Biya is aware that US support only goes with selling military hardware. So the only escape route left vis-à-vis the USA is for the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia to up their propaganda game in the US so majority of Americans who are Christians see the Southern Cameroons war as a persecution of largely Christian Ambazonians by a regime that murders even Roman Catholic Bishops.

Russia can come in if the IG tables a better deal to President Putin. France will of course support a one and indivisible Cameroon, but they have their hands full with possible terrorist attack at home due to influx of terrorist into the French society under the guise of refugees.

Another factor is strategy: The Cameroonian army under Biya is ill-equipped, poorly trained,badly paid and commanded by unpopular Beti-Bulu military officials, but they can engage foreign help very early in the war in order to end it quicker. They will intensify information dissemination and propaganda to counter whatever is coming from Southern Cameroons. They will move quickly to seal off access to water and crude oil and they will be more aggressive in taking out the Ambazonian leadership even with the help of the CIA. (Read statements made by the current US ambassador on the Southern Cameroons crisis)

For Ambazonians, they will take advantage of millions of their people scattered all over the western world to prosecute the restoration war. They will instead secure their borders than marching to Yaoundé like they wanted to do with the SDF and suffered loss then. They will want to secure access to water and oil, use the oil to negotiate internationally. The Interim Government will likely have more spies than the UPC group. Southern Cameroons will not allow people in other parts of La Republique not to notice that there is war. Sooner or later, the Southern Cameroons war will be felt all over enemy territory; guerrilla tactics, guided missiles launch to take out key facilities in French Cameroun, bomb detonation in various cities, assassination and kidnap of key individuals. It will be a fight to finish as no Southern Cameroonian will want to lose.

Another factor is internet and information dissemination, both Southern Cameroons and French Cameroun are already sending out information and it goes viral in seconds. The internet is playing a crucial role in the Ambazonian war.

A critical factor is that the different regions in Cameroon are already taking different stands; there is no longer a united French Cameroun position. The Littoral have since disassociated themselves from any Beti-Ewondo agenda. The Grand Nord simply wants Biya to hand over power back to them.  The Bamilekes are adopting a neutral position unlike before.

We are dealing here with two extremist sides and opinions can be misinterpreted by one side or the other leading to punitive exactions that can involve bodily harm or arson. Most extremists involved in this imbroglio are hardly enlightened enough to interpret and understand fair comment. Participating in the AGBAW-EBAI DEBATE is like walking a tight rope.  However, you can send us your thoughts via email:cameroonconcordnews@gmail.com or cameroonintelligencereport@gmail.com