The expected return of Cameroon’s president Paul Biya to Yaoundé has not occurred. Financial markets are reacting to growing concerns about his health, while several key government figures have been called to Geneva.

What happened on 13 October? In Yaoundé, Cameroon, while supporters of the Rassemblement Démocratique du Peuple Camerounais (RDPC, the ruling party) and members of youth organisations had been discreetly mobilised to welcome President Paul Biya at the airport, the arrangements were scrapped a few hours later, with the same discretion. And with good reason: the Cameroonian president did not return to the country and is still in Europe. But where?

Imaginary homecoming

No announcement has been made about Biya’s aborted return or the reasons. But this latest development has heightened doubts about the president’s condition, after September and October saw him cancel his participation in the United Nations General Assembly, the International Organisation of La Francophonie (OIF) summit and the meeting on sustainable development in Hamburg, Germany.

Faced with rumours of the president’s death spread by a television channel close to the Ambazonian separatists and widely reported on social networks, the Cameroonian presidency and government were forced to make a public statement on 8 October, explaining that the head of state was continuing his stay in Switzerland, was in perfect health and would return to Cameroon “in the very near future”. That was a week ago.

“The head of state had never planned to return this Sunday [13 October],” said a source close to the presidency, who confirmed that no members of the presidential guard or the presidential security directorate responsible for accompanying the head of state on his travels had been mobilised for this trip. According to our sources, airport authorities were not alerted to any movement of CM-001, the code reserved for President Biya.

Budgetary emergencies

As a result, public suspicions have returned with a vengeance. According to one of the most persistent rumours, Biya has been hospitalised for at least two weeks in an ultra-secure VIP wing of the Percy military hospital in Clamart, near Paris. Cameroon’s ambassador to France, André Magnus Ekoumou, denied this to Jeune Afrique. “Paul Biya has never been hospitalised in Paris or anywhere else. He is in Geneva and in good health,” he said.

Then the influential territorial administration minister Paul Atanga Nji provoked more tension by declaring a ban on debates about the president’s condition in the Cameroonian media. In the same vein, land and property minister Henri Eyebe Ayissi announced that he would organise a day of prayer for Biya at Yaoundé’s Palais des Sports on 17 October. This was subsequently cancelled on the orders of Biya’s private office, led by Samuel Mvondo Ayolo.

These initiatives have annoyed some members of the presidential entourage, since they contribute to the climate of mistrust surrounding their boss. On 13 October, Finance Minister Louis-Paul Motaze, who is also expected in Brussels in the next few days, and Senate Vice-President Aboubakary Abdoulaye were summoned to Geneva. On 14 October, they were joined by Senate President Marcel Niat Njifenji, who had just been discharged from the American Hospital in Paris, accompanied by a delegation of three officials from the upper house.

According to our sources, these summonses correspond to a working meeting officially organised to draw up the budget, which was due to be signed by the president in early August. To make up for the delay, it must be finalised before the plenary session of the National Assembly and Senate, scheduled for November. For his part, Njifenji will have to work with his Senate colleagues from Geneva to manage some of the tensions that are threatening the upper house with implosion.

The uncertainty surrounding the drafting of the state budget is also worrying international agencies. Uncertainty about Biya’s health is affecting Cameroon’s ability to borrow as well as increasing the perceived risk of political instability.

With foreign debt repayments imminent and economic operators awaiting clarification, it looks as though the head of state preferred organising the summit meeting in Switzerland over not holding it at all. To date, Biya has no concrete plans to return to Yaoundé.

Culled from The Africa Report